Turn Birdie Putts Into Par Putts To Play Better Golf

The Greatest Putter in PGA Tour History

Is it easier to make a ten-foot putt for birdie or a ten-foot putt for par?  Most players say that it is easier to make the par putt.  And they are right.  But do you know why? 

Tour Players Make More Par Putts Than Birdie Putts.  Two professors at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School analyzed 2.5 million putts on the PGA tour between 2004 and 2009 using ShotLink data.  They determined that at every distance, tour players make a higher percentage of putts for par than they do for birdie.  https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Is-Tiger-Woods-Loss-Averse.pdf

The study authors concluded that on average, tour players make their birdie putts approximately two percentage points less often than they make comparable par putts.  They also found that players leave birdie putts short more often than par putts.  As you would expect, the difference between birdie make rates and par make rates decreased on routine short putts and decreased far from the hole, where the chance of making the putt is small to begin with.  It peaked on putts from 6 to 12 feet.  Even Tiger Woods exhibited the trait at the tour average.

While the study focused on professionals, this phenomenon is more prevalent with amateurs, and the delta between makes for par and makes for birdie is even higher.

The Negativity Bias:  On the face of it, this data makes no sense.  Every putt counts the same, whether it is for eagle or double bogey.  So, why do players make more par putts and fewer birdie putts?  The answer is “negativity bias” – the threat of a bad result is more powerful than the hope of a good result.

Psychologists and behavioral economists began studying this concept about twenty years ago.  Roy Baumeister, a social psychologist, synthesized the research on the negativity effect in his 2019 book The Power of Bad. 

The findings are clear.  Bad is relentlessly stronger than good.  Humans are hardwired for negativity.  Bad health or bad parenting makes much more difference than good health or good parenting. The impact of bad events lasts longer than that of good events.  We are more likely to remember that one time our coach yelled at us than the ten times she told us we were doing a good job. 

Baumeister’s research leads to one conclusion – Tour players miss birdie putts more often than par putts because they are loss averse - afraid of three-putting.  If they two-putt, there is no damage – they make par.  But players make putts for par because of the fear of making a bogey.  Players putt better when they are trying to avoid failure.

Thoughts of Players.  Professionals agree that this data demonstrates reality on the PGA Tour.  My student, Austin Morrison, who competed on the Mackenzie Tour last season, said:   "It makes sense that we would make more par putts than birdie putts. The fear of making bogey is driving an extra level of grit and focus out of us. The key is to bring some of that grit and focus to birdie putts to hopefully make a few more there."  Jim Furyk observed: “Par putts just seem to be more critical because if you miss you drop a shot if you miss a birdie putt, it doesn’t seem to have the same effect.”  https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/sports/golf/16study.html

Reprogram Your Approach to Birdie Putts.  If your statistics look the same as tour pros – and they DO - you can change them.  You can use the negativity effect to make more birdie putts.  Here are the steps you should follow.

First, be aware of your own negativity bias.  As you play your next few competitive rounds, pay attention to your mindset on birdie putts and compare it to your mindset on putts for par or higher scores.  And keep track of your performance (using an app that tracks Strokes Gained, like DECADE). 

Second, focus on your process.  I work with all of my players on process – in fact, after breathing, it is the most important thing that we do.  Good players use their process before the shot to focus their attention on the present and to handle stressors like a tight driving area or the final hole of a tournament.  You can do the same thing to turn birdie putts into par putts and make more of them.  If you focus on your process, your mind is present – not on the last bogey or the trophy waiting for you at the end of the round.

Third, become a “grinder” on birdie putts.  Good players are able to grind to make a par when they miss a green.  According to Dr. Baumeister, “[t]he upside of bad is its power to sharpen the mind and energize the will.”  With an energized will, players make more par putts. 

But you rarely hear players say that they were grinding hard to make a birdie.  To avoid the loss aversion related to birdie putts, think about grinding out your birdie putts.  When you grind, you focus on the present and commit to do what you need to do to execute the putt as well as you can.  Not to make it, but to hit a great putt.  So, when you step into your address position, be confident about your pace and your line and commit to getting the job done – not playing safe. 

To get into this mindset, use a mantra like “grind for par” or “be gritty.”  This will allow you to use negativity bias as fuel to make a birdie and to push away that fear of the three putt that drives caution on birdie putts. 

Words of Caution.  Putting yourself in a grind for par mindset does not mean that you should try to force the putt into the hole or to hit it with more speed to take the break out of the putt.  You should hit your putts at the ideal capture speed, regardless of your mindset.  Also, your make rate on putts outside of twenty feet is less than 15%, so once you get outside of that distance, regardless whether the putt is for par or for birdie, you are unlikely to make it and pace is paramount.   

 Try these tools and see what happens.  I bet you make more birdies in your next round!